Congressional race could be decided by less than 1% of vote

(The Center Square) – An election doesn't get much closer than this.

If history repeats itself, the race for Colorado's 8th Congressional District seat could be determined by a margin that's less than 1% of the vote. That makes the contest a race Democrats and Republicans are watching as they wrestle for control of the U.S. House in the Nov. 3 midterm election.

U.S. Rep. Gabe Evans, a Fort Lupton independent who caucuses with Republicans, is set to face Democratic candidate Manny Rutinel, who currently represents Colorado’s 32nd District in the state House. Evans won by a margin of less than 1% during the congressional elections in 2022 and 2024.

Whether Evans is reelected could help determine whether Republicans hold on to their razor-thin majority in the House. The GOP currently holds 218 seats, including Evans'. Democrats have 214. There are also two vacancies.

The minimum number needed for a majority is 218.

Interest in the race is high enough to attract nearly $11 million in outside spending. Republican-leaning groups, including the Trump-backed super PAC, No Going Back, have spent roughly $2 million more than Democratic groups.

Evans, who ran against Yadira Caraveo in 2024, won by only 2,449 votes – amounting to a less than 1% victory.