Inflation rises to 3.7% as September gasoline costs jump

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday that consumer prices rose 3.7% over the year ending in September, up from 3.4% in August. Prices increased 0.6% for the month after seasonal adjustment. Republicans heading into the midterms have to answer for the cost of living with the same precision they demand from federal spending programs.

Gasoline prices rose 9.1% during September after seasonal adjustment, accounting for more than half of the overall monthly increase, BLS said. Core prices, which exclude food and energy, rose 0.3% for the month and 2.6% over the year. Consumers saw some relief at the grocery store: the food-at-home index declined 0.1% in September. Those differences matter when officials describe a national average to families facing different bills.

Workers also lost purchasing power. In its companion release, BLS reported that inflation-adjusted average hourly earnings for all employees fell 0.5% from August to September. Average hourly pay increased 0.1% before adjustment for inflation. A pay raise that buys less leaves a worker with less room to cover rent or save, even when an employer pays more dollars per hour.

The Associated Press reported that the release intensified pressure on the Federal Reserve ahead of its October 27-28 meeting. An interest-rate decision remains ahead of us. The Fed defines its longer-run 2% inflation goal using the personal consumption expenditures price index, a different measure from the CPI published Wednesday. Readers should keep that distinction when comparing the figures with the central bank's target.

Republican conservative analysis: the gasoline increase gives Congress and the administration a reason to examine how federal decisions affect dependable energy supply. Officials should identify the permits and infrastructure constraints they can change under existing law, set deadlines and report completed work. They should explain how a proposed change would reach consumers and how long construction or added production would take. Announcing a project gives a family no immediate discount at the pump.

Fiscal discipline belongs in that response. Republicans who propose relief should publish its budget cost and identify the spending they would reduce to pay for it. They should examine whether a subsidy increases supply or adds money to a market that still lacks goods. Wednesday's CPI release does not establish how much any federal program contributed to September's increase. The case for spending restraint should rest on a program's cost and purpose, with evidence for claims about prices.

Trump and congressional Republicans can defend policies they believe will expand production while acknowledging the current figures. The release records price changes; it does not assign responsibility among administrations, businesses or overseas events. A credible affordability agenda needs a timetable voters can compare with fuel bills and purchasing power. Republicans should ask agencies for those results and apply the same test to their own proposals.